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2017年圣诞

本来这张碟片One of Us想留着圣诞假期看,但在周日下午一次性看完。风格上和《小镇疑云》类似,人的内心如山雨欲来的天空,藏有不可见光的秘密。

我觉得若是给剧中的人物按喜好程度排个队的话,大概可以窥测出一点价值偏好来。直言不讳地讲,我最不喜欢的是新娘的母亲,Moira。主要原因倒不是她一时风流才导致了这场悲剧,而是她叹为观止推卸责任的方式。伯仁因她而死,她却没有表现出一丝愧疚感,反而和新郎的养母抱一抱泯恩仇。
反对同性恋结婚惯用的一个理由是“人们常常以爱为名,做出最可怕的事情”。本剧实践的好像就是这条中心,就连边缘人物的设计也是为这个主题服务。似乎公正不阿的女侦探暗地里盗卖毒品好筹足钱带女儿出国治病,女儿的同学则间接地沦为她的牺牲品。

美剧酣畅淋漓的节奏感让观众呼吸都来不及调整只能紧紧跟随角色快意恩仇;而英剧的节奏普遍疲疲塌塌,看客有的是时间吃薯片喝可乐遐想推敲,然后就沉入阴郁的剧情里一蹶不振。

圣诞则看的是一本讨论抑郁的书,名字叫The Depths: The Evolutionary Origins of the Depression Epidemic。在阳光充足的夏天,在欢天喜地的假期里探究见不到谷底的深渊,我觉得很契合。

多年以前,我曾抑郁过,抑郁的根本原因是伤逝。然而它不算抑郁症,因为这本书说,直到2013年,精神疾病诊断与统计手册DSM才把它归入进抑郁症里。

很多现代文明病如肥胖、高血压、糖尿病据说是某种进化而来的适应机制。现在普遍丰衣足食而不是有一顿没一顿的狩猎采集的原始社会,可身体里流淌的却是从祖先继承过来还未能与时俱进的节俭型基因。作者推测抑郁其实也是一种进化路上的身体防御机制。譬如,屡屡碰壁的人往往会习得性无助,然而这“放下”才让人不做徒劳无功的事节省出有限的资源养精蓄略寻找更适合的机会。

抑郁很有可能不是病,但在不恰当的环境下自行激活则对身体有害无益,可作者又否定掉了所有简单粗暴一刀切的治疗方案。他说吃抗抑郁药,还是认知行为治疗效果都很有限。根据统计数据,它们就和安慰剂差不多,而且对一些人有用,对另一些人没用,并且时常反弹。更可怕的是,再有经验的医生专家也没办法对症下药,因为他们根本不知道哪种方案对哪类患者有效果。

我很主观地认为,在一定范围里的心情低落不能算病态。譬如新名词路怒症、产后抑郁以及创伤后应激障碍都有夸大和商业的成分。不过我也非常认同作者的观点:Theories without data are like daydreams.所以即便在微博上看到兜售各种心理学商品的大V,我最勇敢的举动就是默默取关。

作者说抑郁的形成很复杂,原因有很多,有西方文化中过度强调的快乐崇拜,有人类之所以能脱颖而出的深谋远虑,有西西弗斯永不放弃的坚韧。

对照看,我的抑郁大概就是进入了作者说的Rumination mood,即 the urge to repetitively think about the causes and consequences of low mood can harden into a habit. Thinking your way out might actually provide new ways in, new ways for low mood to deepen into serious depression. 在“抑郁”期里,既没有看病也没有吃药,也没钱无法出去走走换个环境,就这么消极地与其共处了好一阵子。我都不知道它是怎么渐渐消失的,也许它根本就没有走开。就像有高血压的妈妈,只有在血压偏低的时候,才能感觉到它的存在。

缓解抑郁的正确打开方式

缓解抑郁的正确打开方式

小时候看《动物世界》时常会庆幸自己投胎做了人,而不用象狮子和斑马日夜担心生存问题。现在才明白,其实并没有完全摆脱掉这个枷锁,old sins cast long shadows。

The Secret of Happiness is T...

The Secret of Happiness is T…

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50 Great Myths of Popular Psychology

作为一个心理学爱好者,很多Myths都不算是Myths了。

譬如不要说“雨人”智商很高,或是他们有正常的心智却被困在一个不完美的身体牢笼里。

譬如不要说三岁看到老;或是以为给小孩子听莫扎特就能提高他们的IQ。

譬如不要说心理分析师对寻找罪犯有任何用处。某集《天堂执法者》,穿蓝色连衣裙的心理师端着一盘罪犯喜爱的点心用只言片语便唤醒出他的另一个人格,这种剧情等于裤裆里掏手榴弹。

……

但还有一些Myth是我不知道或不敢肯定的。

在之前的博客提过,我的青春期很平淡很平稳,没有经历过激烈得心身冲突。对比别人的青春期焦虑、叛逆或抑郁,似乎我过的是一个假的青春期。事实是:只有一小部分(20%)受调查的,青春期才显著波动,加上东西方抚养后代的差异,象我这样一平如镜的青春期才是最为常见的,只是白开水的生活很难被导演搬上大屏幕。

 

另一个似是而非观点是“The SAT and other standardized tests are highly coachable”。虽然没有参加过 SAT,但大大小小的标准化考试也亲历了不少。我的实践经验是,智力正常+勤奋+不出意外>=中上成绩,但这本书却说只能平均提高20分。如果以1600为满分的话,那还不如把钱省下来换点好吃好喝的。还有与智力相关的是“天才的隔壁是疯子”,这本书说没有证据推论出IQ高的人容易有心身疾患,相反他们似乎比普通人身体更强健更能抵御精神分裂症,这和肺痨大概是娱乐节目中主角最容易得的两大病症。请注意,精神分裂症可不是说患者有2个以上的人格,而是心身失调,如想哭但却面露微笑。

电击方法治疗网络成瘾被世人诟病最多的估计是:都什么年代了还用这么古老的做法。然而在当今美国每年就有5万患者用电击治疗抑郁,通过脑扫描也发现电击确实对改善抑郁有用,相关报道请见>>。至于原理,科学界还莫衷一是。但我们普通人要做到“知之为知之,不知为不知”,不要只看了电视就以为掌握真理了。

 

 

会心一笑的是“Brain size and IQ are moderately correlated in humans”。作为大头一枚,我真的很不愿意和天生巴掌脸的白种人合影,他们体重可能是我2倍,但在照片里他们是白骨精而我是猪八戒。

整理了出所有50个Myths,以及其他流传许久却不可靠的观点。

链接: https://pan.baidu.com/s/1pKTnnB1

密码: y9vp

Never Let Me Go

每个图书馆大概都至少有一个事事关心的图书管理员。热门书架栏上除了摆放应景的书籍外(现在是圣诞菜谱),还会在白宫公布肯尼迪遇刺内幕时赶紧找出《肯尼迪传》,在哈利王子传出订婚喜讯后几年前的DVD Suits 就又重见天日。在诺贝尔热度消散后,才终于借到了Kazuo Ishiguro的Never Let Me Go

我根本不认为这本书是在探究未来医学的伦理道德,它讲的还就是最古老最原始的生死悲凉。但作者有本事把那些平常人虽然也能感受到的却总也表达不出来的情绪上的悸动用简简单单的词句轻而易举地就给勾画出来了。

譬如,下面的英语单词大概小学生都能准确无误地翻译吧,但这就是本书的关键字而且所承载的回味无穷。
中心人物的原型叫“possible”;长大后他们的职业路径是 “carers” 以及 “donors”;给他们上课的是“guardians” 而不是“teachers”;在经历至多4次 “donation”后,中心人物会“completed”。

前几天看新闻说有5个裸男空降某家快餐店,吓坏了和父母一同就餐的小朋友。警方随即展开调查,希望能惩治这伤风败俗的行为。猜想现在的学龄儿童没有活生生地见过成人肉体的机会(我这一代大概都在浴室里经历了劈头盖脸式的洗礼),但在州立美术馆里有的是不穿衣服全身赤条条的仙子仙女安琪儿,也常常在那里遇见一班班的小学生们在老师的带领下观摩学习。虽然或许有家长私底下觉得某些雕塑油画的尺度过大,但估计没有一个正常人会胆敢用这样的理由向老师请假。

举这个例子不是用来论证色情和艺术的细微差别,力图要说明的是,无论身处在哪一个时空,都有一些不可言说的禁忌。这些禁忌就好比是“皇帝的新衣”大家心知肚明却不可以或根本不可能自由地公开讨论。这些禁忌中有些是和主旨无关的过了特定的年龄段后就无所谓不在意了,书里面Ruth的铅笔盒究竟是不是Guardian送的?Cottages里的同学是不是真的读完《战争与和平》?就是属于这一类。

但有些禁忌它们至关紧要和生命简直连为一体,可就因为象是沉甸甸的肉身,在涉世未深的小孩子眼中实在过于丑陋,很难既不惊吓又不歪曲地去教授去传递。更何况有些人年纪很大很大了,心里面还住着个小孩。

The problem, as I see it, is that you’ve been told and not told. You’ve been told, but none of you really understand, and I dare say, some people are quite happy to leave it that way.

书里的中心人物会长大,必然要踏上很久以前就被规划好的职业道路,所以Hailsham可怜的“guardians”只好含含糊糊地模棱两可地暗渡陈仓地在上课里抖一点在游戏中漏一些,帮着他们隐隐约约地循序渐进地犹如盲人摸象般地做好心理准备。当帷幕拉起显露出不堪入目的真相——不能去好莱坞当明星不能在明亮的办公室里当白领不能在超市里作微笑勤快的收银员,只可以作“carers” 作 “donors”,囿于其间的中心人物已不会惊讶哭泣甚至都不打算去找Guardian作番小小的抗争。相反,他们接受命运的安排还希望能尽快完成使命。他们没有生育功能影响范围有限,但书外面的世界呢?

结尾和最近刚听完的童书《哈利波特》一样,俗气得令我气恼——生命有限,情谊无价,记忆永存。作者写了几百页的浮生若梦为欢几何,最后一页还是要绕回“爱是永恒”大放光明,这种象征处理,在我看来也算是种禁忌。

Always Together … Forever Apart… 才是人生的真相

Always Together … Forever Apart… 才是人生的真相

忽然想心理咨询和宗教告解的一大区别可能是,来访者可以无所顾忌地谈禁忌,而信徒肯定有一个禁忌是必须回避的。

When we lost something precious, and we’d looked and looked and still couldn’t find it, then we didn’t have to be completely heartbroken. We still had that last bit of comfort, thinking one day, when we were grown up, and we were free to travel the country, we could always go and find it again in Norfolk.

我的Norfolk就是May we all be good carers before we complete.

 

不要问我从哪里来

最近读到一篇文章,你的家乡在哪里, 尽管已再三否认,还是感觉出作者难以掩盖的优越感。

打从出国后从不主动问别人从哪里来,因为我有同理心。还记得上语言课的第一天,互相介绍时有同学说香港,而当时距离97年回归已然过去10多年。

其实还在国内的时候,我好像也不太去关心这方面的事情。可能认识的人少圈子也窄,多是知根知底甚至是一条弄堂里长大的。而且那时外来人口甚为罕见,偶尔有几个从别出来的,我们象看西洋镜那样稀奇。譬如,随知青父母转校过来的新疆少年站在讲台上描述甜得能粘住手指的哈密瓜,他活灵活现地模仿大腹便便的猪八戒,这一场景直到现在还历历在目,可惜至今我还没能去成新疆果园圆梦。

虽然比不上作者游览过不少偏僻市县,但我喜欢地理,儿时的一个爱好就是在地图册上认全中国所有的犄角旮旯。当遇上那些不以家乡为荣的朋友,应该也能找出几处优点来夸赞的。只是不过初次见面就刨根究底地追问别人的家乡又是为什么呢?为交友那就不该为难对方。为不忘初心你们还在交浅言深的阶段呢。为找话题,有的是既不伤和气又能活跃气氛的。

Dinner party topics

  • If you were trapped in a lift for a while, which six famous people would you like to be trapped with?
  • I’m wondering what your perfect weekends would be?
  • Who would you have in a football team if you could have anyone you wanted?
  • If heaven existed, what would yours be like?
  • If you were marooned on a desert island, which eight CDs/films/books would you like to have with you?

有一句西谚说的是我不能选择我的祖国,但是我可以选择我心灵的祖国。改动成:我不能选择我的家乡,但是我可以选择我心灵的家乡。很自豪,有那么那么多人会暗暗地把我的家乡当成自己心灵的家乡。

以下节选自《你的家乡在哪里》

从前初次见面,谈吐含蓄雅致,问家乡都用府上,如今再说府上,多半的回答是:你说什么?如果直白地问对方是哪里人,有人痛痛快快,有人则闪烁其辞,直至不答,最多说个省份,还特意加一句:穷地方!假如再问的话,好像就要与他们为敌了。有位音乐界朋友,我问他哪里人,他回答之后就不耐烦地来了一句:怎么啦?有的朋友干脆回答,别问了,说了你也不知道!当我不但知道,而且还去过时,他们也一定要追问一句:不怎么样吧!

有些朋友,在他们心目中,可能把各个地方分为三六九等,所以回答家乡之问后,无不补上一句,这个地方原来属于什么什么省。言外之意是,他们原本并不属于这里,更言外的意思估计是,那个省比这个省强。

幸亏我曾经游览过不少偏僻市县,当遇上那些不以家乡为荣的朋友,都赶紧称赞几句,举几位那里的名人,说几处那里的山川,讲几句那里的特产,借此缓解一下气氛,否则,对方就会怀疑我问家乡哪里,是在蓄意揭短了。

达赖喇嘛

借了张达赖喇嘛传记的有声书,每天睡觉前听一章,以下他眼中的西藏历史。

据说,西藏与中原王朝在历史上有不同程度上的交往和联系,在部分时期受到不同程度上的统治,但亦曾经占领中原的一些省份。

约2000年前公元前127年,部落联盟结成

第33代即公元627年,联盟首领即赫赫有名的松赞干布

第36代,占领中国部分省份

第41代即公元901年,西藏四分五裂

公元1253年-1296年,首次由僧人统治西藏,喇嘛来自萨迦寺,第一任名叫大思巴

1349年-1435年,帕木竹巴系的十一位喇嘛相继统治西藏

1435年-1641年,世俗统治

1641年-1950年,5世喇嘛统治西藏,即现在流亡印度喇嘛的前生,班禅并不管理世俗政治

1720年-1890年,似乎约定俗成,西藏和清朝是属国与宗主国的关系

1893年,《中英藏印续约》,盖有中国皇帝印鉴

1904年,英国和西藏签订《拉萨条约》,声称中国无权代表西藏签订涉及到西藏的条约

1907年,俄国和英国签订协定,却又确认入驻西藏必须经由中国同意

1910年-1912年,中国入驻西藏,最后又被西藏人打跑

1913年,英国和西藏签订协定,将西藏分为自治的外藏和由中国管理的内藏,并使中国政府承认对西藏行使的只是宗主权而非主权。但中国没有签署该协定。

1912年-1950年,有12世/13世达赖喇嘛统治

13世达赖喇嘛1935年7月6日出生,和我生日那么那么近~~~
他承认当时的西藏两级分化严重上升空间非常狭窄,不过以他的自身经历——即通过金瓶挚签一升飞天来论证还是存在改变命运的机会。也许是为了得到更广泛的支持,作为佛教成员,他不反对同性恋,只是委婉地表示人不能仅仅停留在personal pleasure的层面上。不过他旗帜鲜明地表态,自己虽过得“清苦”但很享受秘诀就是放下personal attachment。传记作者说,接触过他的人都能感受到他散发出的和煦温暖,但其实他跟每个人都不亲近。譬如,在twitter 上他有15.8M的粉丝,但他的关注则是0。

Dalai Lama 的Twitter

Dalai Lama 的Twitter

 

呼啸山庄

趁休息天,把the Literature Book看完。不出意外这本书里上榜的中国作家寥寥无几,就李白、杜甫、王维、鲁迅和莫言5人,其中唐朝3诗人还分享才一张的篇幅。在怎么评估,《红楼梦》总该占一席之地,个人觉得要比同时代的Les Liaisons dangereuses深刻多了。

意外的是介绍《呼啸山庄》的有4页,和姐姐的《简爱》平起平坐。我10岁出头读过一次上译的《呼啸山庄》,奇怪烂俗的三角恋居然是世界名著?我三观太正从来不喜欢作天作地的主角,譬如《安娜·卡列尼娜》觉得女主自杀是咎由自取。

呼啸山庄

呼啸山庄

然而这份书评却说《呼啸山庄》的重点可不是男欢女爱,而是揭示出家庭并不是温馨港湾以及女性逼仄的生存空间。

I cannot live without my life! I cannot live without my soul!

知乎上看到评价鲁迅个人情感的问题,各抒己见众说纷纭。很遗憾地发现,朱安即便在那里仍然似一个衡量鲁迅品德高下的标准,一件物事而已。似乎也隐喻出当今中国女性还是规避不了未嫁从父、出嫁从夫、夫死从子的价值体系观。也难怪伍尔夫会称赞这本书“timeless in nature”.

想重读一遍。

想重读一遍的还有

  1. Bleak House
  2. Magic Mountain
  3. A Portrait of The Artist As A Young Man
  4. The Big Sleep
  5. 1984
  6. In Cold Blood
  7. American Psycho
  8. The Secret History

可能因为是西方视角,选编进来的近代的非西方文学似乎都属于痛陈历史纠结于经济文化等冲突的伤痕文学。譬如Their Eyes Were Watching GodThings Fall ApartMidnight’s Children。而西方的不仅题材丰富,创作手段也非常多元,譬如故事里套着故事,譬如开放性的叙事结构,譬如多层维度解读同一个故事。马克思说得没错,经济基础决定上层建筑,只有吃饱了才能全情投入文化实验。

The Art of Thinking Clearly

以下很多思想方式都是互相作用影响的。譬如评价一个人一桩事,不能人云亦云-3. Social Proof(前两天有一则在微博上点击率非常高的视频-跳舞的小胖妞,收到众人点赞可长此以往她可能就变成丑人多作怪再一次被众人批评),不能迷信专家-7. Authority Bias,或是明星背书-2. Swimmer’s Body Illusion、14. Chauffeur Knowledge(入戏太深的靳东以及众多的新闻记者/主持人),不要计算沉没成本,包括经济上的-4. Sunk Cost Fallacy和精力上的-21. Endowment Effect(通过马拉松来募集,非常低效的做法),不要相信广告词-11. Story Bias和统计数据-49. Average Problem,不要相信免费午餐-55. Volunteer’s Folly(我从不以为义务劳动是一种善举),不要认为物以稀为贵-23.Scarcity Error。

那到底怎样才能尽可能地正确地评价人或事呢?-75. Feature-Positive Effect,简单地说就是列出负面清单。

 

  1. Survivorship Bias: overestimate their chances of success
  2. Swimmer’s Body Illusion: the models are born attractive and only for this reason are they candidates for cosmetics advertising.  Beauty is a factor for selection and not the result.
  3. Social Proof: roughly termed the herd instinct, dictates that individuals feel they are behaving correctly when they act the same as other people.
  4. Sunk Cost Fallacy: no matter how much you have already invested, only your assessment of the future cost and benefits counts.
  5. Reciprocity: refuse free offers
  6. Confirmation Bias: facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. Interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact
  7. Authority Bias
  8. Contrast Effect: we judge something to be beautiful, expensive or large if we have something ugly, check or small in front of us. We have difficulty with absolute judgement.
  9. Availability Bias: we create a picture of the world using the examples that most easily come to mind. This is absurd because in reality things don’t happen more frequently just because we can conceive of them more easily.
  10. It’ll Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy
  11. Story Bias: they give us a false sense of understanding, which inevitably leads us to take bigger risks and urges us to take stroll on thin ice.
  12. Hindsight Bias: hindsight may provide temporary comfort to those overwhelmed by complexity, but as for providing deeper revelations about how the world works, you will benefit by looking your dairy.
  13. Overconfidence Effect: be aware that you tend to overestimate your knowledge. With all plans favour the pessimistic scenario,  you have a chance of judging the situation somewhat realistically.
  14. Chauffeur Knowledge:  knowledge from people who have learned to put on a show, like actor.
  15. Illusion of Control
  16. Incentive Super-Response Tendency: manager invest more energy in trying to lower the targets than in growing the business.
  17. Regression to Mean
  18. Outcome Bias
  19. Less Is More: given the flood of possibilities, is a form of irrational perfectionism. Learn to love a good choice.
  20. Liking Bias: judge a product independent of who is selling it.
  21. Endowment Effect: don’t cling to things. Consider your property something that the universe has bestowed on you temporarily.
  22. Neglect of Probability: the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertain
  23. Scarcity Error: assess products and services solely on the basis of their price and benefits. It should be of no importance if an item is disappearing fast.
  24. Base-Rate Neglect: the tendency to base judgments on specifics, ignoring general statistical information.
  25. Gambler’s Fallacy:  in the real life, all events are often interrelated.
  26. The Anchor
  27. Induction: nothing is certain but death and taxes.
  28. Loss Aversion: we are more sensitive to negative than to positive things. We remember bad behaviour longer than good.
  29. Social Loafing: people behave differently in groups than when alone. It can be mitigated by making individual performances as visible as possible.
  30. Exponential Growth:  magical number 70 (logarithm),  example,  5% inflation 70/5=14. In 14 years, a dollar will be worth only half what it is today
  31. Winner’s Curse: don’t go auction
  32. Fundamental Attribution Error:  the tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviours observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behaviour
  33. False Causality: correlation is not causality. Take a closer look at linked events, and sometimes there is no link at all.
  34. Halo Effect: it obstructs our view of true characteristics. To counteract this, go beyond face value.
  35. Alternative Paths: success that comes about through risky dealing is of less worth than success achieve the boring way.
  36. Forecast Illusion: be critical when you encounter prediction. Don’t publish any more forecasts without giving the pundit’s track record.
  37. Conjunction Fallacy:  the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general one
  38. Framing:  drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented.
  39. Action Bias: all of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
  40. Omission Bias:  the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions. When the situation is intelligible, a future misfortune might be averted with direct action, but this insight doesn’t motivates us as much as it should.
  41. Self-Serving Bias: the tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests
  42. Hadonic Treadmill: avoid negative things that you cannot grow accustomed to; expect only short-term happiness from material things; aim for as much free time and autonomy as possible, since long-lasting positive effects generally come from what you actively do.
  43. Self-Selection Bias:
  44. Association Bias: false connection with the past.
  45. Beginner’s Luck:  people who are new to a game and lose in the first few rounds are usually clever enough to fold. But whoever strikes lucky tends to keep going, convinced of their above-average skills, these amateurs increase the stakes.
  46. Cognitive Dissonance: you can play the clever fox all you want, but you’ll never get the grapes that way.
  47. Hyperbolic Discounting:  the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.
  48. Contagion Bias: how we are incapable of ignoring the connection we feel to certain items – be they from long ago or only indirectly related.
  49. Average Problem: if someone uses the word average, think twice. Try to work out the underlying distribution. If a single anomaly has almost no influence on the set, the concept is still worth-will. ‘the future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.’
  50. Motivation Crowding : when people do something for well-meaning, payments throw a wrench into the works. Financial reward erodes any other motivations.
  51. Twaddle Tendency: verbal expression is the mirror of the mind. Clear thoughts become clear statements, whereas ambiguous ideas transform into vacant ramblings. ‘if you have nothing to say, say nothing.’
  52. Information Bias: superfluous knowledge is worthless, whether you know it or not. ‘the greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it is the illusion of knowledge.’.
  53. Effort Justification: whenever you have invested a lot of time and effort into something, stand back and examine the result – only the result.
  54. Simple Logic: participants with low CRT results tend to believe in God and the immortality of soul. This makes sense, the more intuitively people make decisions, the less rationally they query religious beliefs.
  55. Volunteer’s Folly: personal benefits such as gaining skills, experience, and contacts also play a big part.  Anyone who profits or feels even the slightest satisfaction from volunteering is not a pure altruist.
  56. Affect Heuristic: we are puppets of our emotions. We make complex decisions by consulting our feelings, not our thoughts.
  57. Introspection Illusion: nothing is more convincing than your own beliefs. First, it creates inaccurate prediction of future mental states. Second, we believe that our introspections are more reliable than those of others, which creates an illusion of superiority.
  58. Sleeper Effect: after a few weeks, you won’t remember if you picked up certain information from a well-researched article or from a tacky advertorial. First, don’t accept any unsolicited advice. Second, avoid ad-contaminated sources. Third, try to remember the source of every argument you encounter.
  59. Social Comparison Bias: the tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don’t compete with one’s own particular strengths
  60. Primacy and Recency Effects: the greater ease of recall of initial items in a sequence compared to items in the middle of the sequence. First and last impression dominate, meaning that the content sandwiched between has only a weak influence.
  61. Not-Invented-Here Syndrome: we are drunk on our own ideas. To sober up, take a step back every now and them to examine their quality in hindsight.
  62. The Black Swan: is an unthinkable event that massively affects your life. There are positive and negative black swans.
  63. Domain Dependence: what you master in one area is difficult to transfer to another. Especially daunting is the transfer from academia to real life. Book smarts doesn’t transfer to street smarts easily.
  64. False-Consensus Effect: the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.
  65. In-Group Out-Group Bias: the tendency for people to give preferential treatment to others they perceive to be members of their own groups
  66. Ambiguity Aversion: the tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem “unknown.”  Must understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. Only in very few areas can we count on clear probabilities
  67. Default Effect: reveal that we have a strong tendency to cling to the way things are, even if this puts us at a disadvantage. By changing the default setting, you can change human behaviour.
  68. Fear of Regret: tricks you into thinking this was one-time offer.
  69. Salience Effect: we tend to neglect hidden slow-to-develop discrete factors, and be blinded by irregularities.
  70. House-Money Effect: be careful if you win money or if a business gives you something for free. Chances are you will pay it back with interest out of sheer exuberance.
  71. Envy: the subject of envy is a thing; the subject of jealousy is the behaviour. Envy needs two people, jealous requires three.
  72. Planning Fallacy: the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. First, wishful thinking. We want to be successful and achieve everything we take on. Second, we focus too much on the project and overlook outside influences.
  73. Deformation Professionnelle: if your only tool is a hammer, all you problem will be nails. It becomes hazardous when people apply their specialised processes in areas where they don’t belong.
  74. Skill Illusion: certain people make a living from their abilities, such as pilots, plumbers. In other areas, skill is necessary but not critical, as with entrepreneurs and leaders. Finally, chance is the deciding factor in a number of fields, such as in financial markets.
  75. Feature-Positive Effect: we have problems perceiving non-events. We are blinded to what does not exist. The greatest philosophical question is why does something and not nothing exist?

 

认知偏差

认知偏差